Author: ektz

I was lying in bed last night, wondering how the Monty Hall paradox can be explained well, and figured it could only happen if i change my perception a bit.

What is the Monty Hall problem? well he is a game show host.. of the show called “Deal or No Deal” .. [the copy of it is made in indian TV as well.. i dnt remember the name of the game, but Aman Verma was the host as far as i remember] Anyway, back to the problem,

Consider three doors. Behind one is a car, and behind two others are goats. You are asked to choose one door – if it’s the one with the car, you win. otherwise, you lose.

you choose one car. Then Monty (the gameshow host) opens one of the other doors to show a goat behind it. You are given the chance to change your choice of door to the other closed one – should you?

The answer is Yes. the /intuitive/ answer is that there is a 50% chance either way, but mathematically, there is actually a 66% chance.

Took me a good few minutes to figure out how to verify it. I kept thinking of it as “there is a 33% chance of me picking the right one. door opens. I now have… 50%?”. Couldn’t seem to make the leap for some reason.

That was a result of wrong perception – you need to think of it from the point of view of what is /not/ the right door.

1. choose one door. the chance of the car being behind one of the other doors is 66%.
2. one of the other doors opens. the chance is still 66%!.
3. You now have two closed doors. the door you /did not originally choose/ has a higher chance than the one you did choose, so you should switch.

well.. wikipedia explains it much better than me.. so here is the link..
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem.

The interesting fact is, it actually makes me question the perception norms.
does it to you?

A book that made you laugh: Abol Tabol – Sukumar Roy

A book that made you cry: Childhood’s end – Arthur clerke

A book that scared you: The Fly

A book that disgusted you: Stephen King , most of his work

A book you loved in elementary school: The Treasure Island

A book you loved in middle school or junior high school: 20000 leagues under the sea – Jules Verne

A book you loved in high school: Sherlock Holmes – Arthur conan doyle.

A book you loved in college: Many actually. sci-fi by arthur clerke, isaac asimov. Emotional ones by Paulo Coelho, Philosophical ones by Ayn Rand

A book that challenged your identity: Veronica Decides to Die – Paulo Coelho. Made me realise so many things I would not be able to think otherwise.

A series that you love: Garfield. Hagar The horrible. And now Calvin and Hobbes.

Your favorite horror book: None I guess.

Your favorite science fiction book: Hitchhiker’s guide to galaxy – Douglas Adams

Your favorite fantasy: Artemis Fowl – Eion Colfer

Your favorite mystery: all Sherlock Holmes.

Your favorite biography: Experiments with Truth – Mahatma Gandhi.

Your favorite “coming of age” book: Atlas Shrugged. The one that evolved me as a person.

Your favorite classic: Shakespere. too cliched, isn’t it?

Your favorite romance book: Have never read mills and boons. But I used to write some, which so far has been my favorite.

.. to be locked out of flat by accident while my keys, mobile phone, money wallet and even sandals are left inside. So here i am, out, barefeet, with nothing but the clothes that i am wearing. The only other key is with someone who is going to be late and I am alone outside, neither do I know any neighbors, nor remember local mumbai numbers of friends. sad, it is. I am clumsy, but this time it was due to my bothered frame of mind it seems.

Anyhow after a long wait, sitting alone on stairs, thinking profound thoughts as I had nothing else to do, I am finally inside the flat. And feels good to be under a roof.

For the first time I think I came a bit close to understand the plea of a person who has no roof over his/her head.